A 'Strategic Dialogue' on the Ropes: What France-Russia Relations Means for Europe
Morgan Fox, Online Staff Writer
November 13, 2020
Very little will stop the French president from pursuing his vision for Europe, even a global pandemic and a divided union.
One of Emmanuel Macron’s primary goals since becoming president in 2017 has been bringing the European Union into a new age. This rests on two principles: solidarity among member countries and the assertion of European sovereignty against big power players. To achieve the latter goal, Macron considers it necessary to bring Russia back into Europe’s fold and to create a ‘strategic dialogue’ with Vladimir Putin. This is controversial, both within and outside the EU, for a wealth of reasons. Macron’s goal has been made even more difficult by the recent poisoning of Putin’s biggest opponent, Alexei Navalny, and Russia’s support for Lukashenko, Belarus’ dictator.
Russia has been isolated from the Western world since 2014, when it illegally annexed Crimea, a region of Ukraine, and invaded the country's eastern regions of Donetsk and Luhansk. Since then, the EU and the United States (US) have imposed economic sanctions, with mixed results. On the one hand, Russia’s economy and industry has been seriously damaged by the sanctions, which have hurt Putin’s ratings. But Russia hasn’t given up Crimea or pulled out of Ukraine either. Notably, French businesses have been lobbying Macron to ease sanctions, partly because France has consistently been one of Russia’s largest foreign investors.
In August 2019, Macron invited Putin to his official presidential retreat, but since the poisoning of Alexei Navalny, the tone in Paris may be hardening. A meeting between French and Russian foreign and defence ministers was called off, and a phone call between Macron and Putin was dubbed “the dialogue of the deaf” by Le Monde after Putin suggested that Navalny may have poisoned himself. France has joined Germany and the UK in instituting further sanctions against Russia. Despite these harsher measures though, it is possible that Macron just considers this a short-term setback in a longer-term conversation, as is typical when he faces a political obstacle.
Before considering whether a strategic dialogue is a feasible or correct path of action, it is necessary to figure out what a potential relationship with Russia would look like. Although Macron has so far ruled out eliminating sanctions, the dialogue will not get far without easing them. In exchange for easing sanctions, it is still unlikely that Russia will return Crimea to Ukraine - it has been six years, and nothing short of extensive military intervention would bring that about - but Putin could be convinced to pull his troops out of the Donbas. Beyond Russia’s presence in Ukraine, the West would likely expect Russia to seriously demilitarize its presence in Eastern Europe. This could include denuclearizing the Kaliningrad region (the tiny portion of Russian territory sandwiched between Poland and Lithuania), no longer violating NATO airspace, ending the buildup of warships in the Black Sea, and allowing Ukraine to fully enter the Western zone of influence. Even if all of this was accomplished, it would not prevent Russia from continuing its ‘grey zone’ war in the West, where it manipulates the media, commits politically-motivated assassinations, interferes in elections, and engages in cyber-attacks.
Why should Russia do any of this though? What does Putin stand to gain, aside from the elimination of sanctions? Macron thinks this is the most logical next step for Vladimir Putin. As he sees it, Russia’s model is unsustainable. It is a huge country with an ageing population, its GDP is similarly-sized to Spain, but Russia is spending two times more than the entire EU combined on defence and is over-engaged in conflicts despite a multitude of problems at home. Putin could attempt to turn Russia into a global superpower without help, but that seems unlikely considering its conservative immigration policy. A country with an ageing population that is hostile to non-white immigrants will struggle to grow and bolster its position in the global order. Another option is to ally itself more with China and become a leader in Eurasia, but this is also unlikely due to China’s significantly stronger economy and Putin’s unwillingness to play second fiddle.One of the few long-term choices Putin has left is to re-establish a dialogue with Europe, and Macron wants France to be the country that facilitates it.
Europe is not a united front when it comes to Russia, though. Macron’s idea of a strategic dialogue worries Poland and the Baltic states, who face Russian interference and heavy military presence along their borders. Moreover, much of Eastern Europe is dependent on NATO and the crucial Article 5 (if a NATO member is attacked, other members will come to its aid). Macron, on the other hand, recently dubbed NATO ‘brain dead.’ The French president’s derision of NATO does not inspire trust or belief in his dialogue with Russia. Before France can seriously engage in these discussions, it needs the metaphorical blessing from more countries than Germany alone.
Macron claims that he is not being naive by attempting a strategic dialogue, but instead sees it as a necessary step, which could take a decade or more to achieve. The West’s relationship with Russia has always been characterized by an open hand and a clenched fist, but this time around, the dynamics and results are much more unpredictable.