Crimea, Taiwan, Essequibo- The Roots of Our Deteriorating Global Security
Luke Chaney
January 29, 2024
Geopolitical tension and the precarious nature of state security have been dominating our international sphere, particularly in the last few years. According to The Atlantic, the years 2022 and 2023 have been the most violent years of global politics since World War Two. With a massive land war in Ukraine, China stepping up it's "Wolf Warrior" diplomacy against Taiwan, and the Israeli-Palestinian conflict intensifying once again, this fact comes as no surprise to any who have been following global news.
A relatively new addition to this extensive list is the exacerbating tensions between Venezuela and the Republic of Guyana over the disputed region of Essequibo. A recent referendum introduced by the Venezuelan government, aimed at officially claiming the region as the rightful territory of Venezuela, saw a 95% approval rate as the two nations’ respective militaries mobilized along their shared border. Although both nations have agreed to evade the use of force when resolving this dispute, peace is far from guaranteed, with Guyana rallying military support from foreign powers such as the UK, and Venezuela conducting training drills in response.
What is most interesting about this growing flashpoint in global politics is why Venezuelan President Nicolás Maduro has decided on such an aggressive course of action in light of Venezuela’s continued economic chaos. Many contend that Venezuela has gone down the road of expansionism precisely because of their failed economy, and that this relationship between economic difficulties and warmongering is incredibly common among autocratic regimes. The Essequibo region and its coastal territories hold substantial mineral and oil resources, many of which were only discovered in 2015, potentially offering Venezuela an avenue to minimize its economic death spiral.
Similarly, this dispute has provided President Maduro with an opportunity to increase nationalist sentiments among the populace, as the people are motivated to rally around their government in order to counter a perceived enemy, that being Guyana and its Western allies. Venezuela is seen as a notoriously politically unstable state, so this war is likely a path for the Maduro government to counter sedition by establishing a greater, common foe among Venezuela's dissidents.
Both Russia and China, two similarly authoritarian and internationally jingoistic nations, are in similar situations of economic uncertainty. These nations are facing population shrinkage as their fertility rate decreases and average age increases, a trend which is likely to perpetuate in the future. A simultaneously aging and decreasing population leads to a shortage of workers to produce goods and services and fewer potential recruits for military affairs. As such, both nations are being forced to act immediately to counteract this population crisis.
Given the aforementioned aggression of Russia towards Ukraine and China towards Taiwan, the remedy the two states have developed appears to be that of violent territorial expansion, bringing more citizens under their control to ward off the coming crisis. This jingoism seems to have not yet paid off for Russia, as their Armed Forces and those of Ukraine are locked in stalemate, with estimates of Russian casualties being in the hundreds of thousands, and the number of Russians who have fled the war being estimated in the millions.
This seems to matter little, however, as the saber rattling of China continues, and Russia shows no signs of slowing down its armed campaign. Globally, autocracies are flailing under the weight of their own political and economic pressures. Their rigid political systems are forcing them to lash out against other nations so that they may achieve materialistic rewards such as manpower and resources. This desperate jingoism has served to make the post-COVID era a uniquely dangerous and violent period of modern history, and if current trends are to be believed, the problem will likely get worse before it gets better.