Time is running out: China’s geopolitical goals for the 2020’s and beyond.
Cameron Leah January 11, 2024
What if I told you that the ongoing struggle for dominance between the United States and China was predicted by a man over 2400 years ago? Indeed, Athenian historian Thucydides developed a theory which perfectly encapsulates the current tension between these two global powers.
The theory, commonly referred to as the “Thucydides Trap”, claims war can and will occur when a rising power threatens an existing hegemon. In this instance, the hegemon is the United States, and the rising (and arguably peaking) power is China. While this collision may seem alarming, it is also important that individuals understand certain historical policies enacted by China are beginning to come back and haunt them; while China is still undoubtedly a powerful country, the time to fulfill the promise of Chinese glory is swiftly running out.
Tensions between these two countries did not always exist at the level seen today. Beginning in the 1970’s and continuing through the early 2000’s, Sino-American relations slowly but surely improved. From 1980 to 2004, trade between the two countries skyrocketed, growing from 5 billion to over 200 billion. Additionally, both sides affirmed their willingness to cooperate on several issues as late as 2011, during the Obama administration. However, the previous decade showcased a fallout between the two powers stemming from a number of issues including trade wars, disputes over territories, and allegations of foreign interference. As it stands today, the goals and aspirations of these two nations are distinct from one another. The United States views China as a danger to the modern international world order. A majority of both major political parties in America believe China’s continued growth poses a threat to its interests. On the other hand, China has for a long time attempted to convince their people that the world is hell-bent on limiting their growth and well-being. They have repeatedly tried to claim or dispute foreign land, an example being the South China Sea, A Chinese invasion of Taiwan is a real possibility and has been for some time; simultaneously, American support for Taiwanese independence is at a high, which culminated during a highly publisized visit by then-speaker Nancy Pelosi in 2022. An enraged Xi Jinping responded by accelerating military operations around the island.
While many are fearful of the potential of China overtaking America as the dominant hegemon of the world, it should be noted China is slowly but surely crumbling behind the scenes. China’s main issues relate to its population demographics and available resources. First and foremost, China is on the verge of a population crisis. The “One Child Policy” was a policy enacted by China in 1980 which lasted until its discontinuation in 2016. When it was first implemented, the goal was to slow down the rapid population growth China was experiencing. This policy proved to be disastrous outside of limiting growth. For example, it heavily skewed the population towards males, as they were preferred over females since only males could inherent the family name and any existing property could be transferred down to them. Over time, the gap between males and females widened, which has left millions upon millions of Chinese citizens unable to find a partner to start a family with. The most damaging aspects resulting from the policy however are yet to be seen. By 2050, China will have only 2 workers for every one retiree, compared with the 10 workers for every one retiree they had around 2000 (Brands/Beckley, 2022). This means China will have to massively increase social spending to prevent elderly people from bearing the brunt of the financial strain. Preventing this strain is made more improbable as China faces the consequences of an aging workforce. The impending necessity for increased social funding will have to be generated from a dwindling workforce. All in all, China will have to somehow care for their surging senior population using funds they are not likely to have, while also allocating enough funds to support their massive geopolitical goals.
None of this is to say that a future confrontation between America and China will result in a resounding American victory. In order for America to successfully mitigate Chinese threats, they must work to make sure they outlast China in the short-term. China is still a highly powerful country and will be for some time, but it seems as though they recognize that their window of opportunity is closing, which is opening the door for action. Any American foreign policy aimed at combating China must be executed with an understanding that China is peaking right now. If America can do this, we may see China fizzle out as a great power, similarly to how the Cold War between the US and former Soviet Union ended with the Soviet Union essentially running out of gas and losing its status as a hegemonic Nation, which resulted in its dissolution. As Mark Twain once said, “History doesn't repeat itself, but it often rhymes.”