To Age into Obscurity: The Future of South Korea in its Demographic Collapse
Taylor Fountain
February 29
South Korea grapples with many issues; security risks, a critical shortage of natural resources, and a near-constant deterioration of relations with their neighbors to the North and those across the Yellow Sea; however, this is not the country's most significant issue. In fact, and perhaps more surprisingly, their main concern stems from within. South Korea is, quite plainly, running out of people.
To understand this issue, we must discuss demographics, a subject seldom discussed in geopolitics because it is generally taken for granted. Furthermore, demographic shifts tend to happen over long periods and only garner little attention. However, any functioning state's demographics need to remain stable so less enormous repercussions do not occur later; unfortunately for South Koreans, their time has come, and it is almost certainly a terminal issue.
Birthrates are hugely important aspects of the overall health of a country. If there is insufficient replacement generation, economic recession, the weakening of the state and further reliance on other international actors are the best-case scenarios. To sufficiently replace a generation, said generation must average 2.1 children per mother; the two replace the mother and father and point one accounts for infant mortality. The population will eventually decline when the replacement rate falls below this threshold.
Many different factors may impact birth rates; however, the most impactful typically falls around urbanization. In the old, pre-industrial time, most of us lived on farms working in the agricultural sector. As such, having children was more accessible, but it also made logical sense to do so; they were free labour: they helped around the farm, and they would typically take over once their parents no longer could. Frankly, it made as much emotional sense as it did economically.
The results? People had many kids, and it showed that in South Korea, the birth rate stood in 1960 at just over 6.0 children per mother, far above the necessary 2.1 replacement rate. However, as the country began to industrialize, people moved from the farms to the city, from sprawling ranches to cramped apartments in Seoul. To any of us who have lived in cities, it is hard to raise one child, but six of them are complete non-starters.
Furthermore, children shift from perfect free labour to economic burdens, and thus, you naturally have less of them. In South Korea, rapid urbanization took place in one generation. Therefore, it went from everyone being farmers to everyone working in tech industries, from 6 children a family in 1960 to 2.6 in 1980 to 0.78 in 2022. South Korea simply stopped having children.
To contextualize just how significant this issue is, a recent forecast suggested that by the year 2072, the South Korean population will decline by over 30 percent, or perhaps more shockingly, South Korea will start losing people every year from 2025 until 2100 at the very least. There have been very few instances in which this level of population decline has over been recorded, and they have only occurred under such circumstances of plague and war, but this is neither. Hence, it is not an exaggeration to say we have never seen something like this before.
What will the cities look like as the population declines, how will workplaces adapt, and who will be doing the work? Who will serve in the military, who will grow the food, man the bridges? These questions are essential given that there will be, without any hyperbole, no one left. Industrialization and subsequent urbanization come at a price; on one hand, it allows countries to lift themselves out of agrarian poverty and improve the lives of their citizens. Healthcare improves, and people typically live longer and happier lives; however, if done incorrectly, it is on borrowed time. Economic growth is fantastic, yet South Korea made a deal with the devil, an economic boom for demographic collapse.
The impacts are far-reaching across virtually all sectors of the South Korean economy. If massive companies such as Samsung have operated their entire production model off the 50-some million workforce, how will they adapt to the sudden lack of available workers? Invest in AI, move operations overseas, or go bankrupt? All options are now on the table. If things are left unchanged, complete economic collapse is highly likely.
As we proceed further and further into the 21st century, South Korea faces the most significant test the nation has ever encountered: How will it adapt to such drastic change? Moreover, will the state itself even be capable of managing such change? As China and North Korea become increasingly bombastic in their militaristic posturing, how will the South Koreans respond? As the country grows weaker, it will become increasingly vulnerable to foreign intervention. For decades, South Korea has been a beacon of democracy in East Asia and served as a vital U.S. ally, playing a crucial role in deterring Chinese interests in the region. However, this arrangement may no longer be tenable. Change is coming in Northeast Asia; suffice to say, the world will begin to feel its impact in the very near future. Will South Korea manage through these troubling times, or is this the beginning of the end?